Unearthing the Reality of “Zombie Energy Systems” in Africa's Energy Transition

Abstract Africa’s energy transition is unique and complicated by – among other things – the pervasive presence of “Zombie Energy Systems” (ZES). These are outdated, inefficient, and environmentally harmful energy systems that persist despite being obsolete (e.g., old and mismanaged electrical grid systems and obsolete electrical appliances). These ZES hinder Africa’s energy transition, yet they receive limited attention in the international energy development arena. Rooted in colonial-era legacies, economic constraints, and policy shortcomings, these energy systems have led to a persistent misalignment between energy supply and development goals, perpetuating energy poverty and limiting economic growth. In this piece, we identify ZES as a critical barrier to Africa’s energy transition, arguing that addressing it requires more than just infrastructure replacement. A holistic approach is needed—one that includes decommissioning outdated assets, modernizing grids, promoting energy efficiency, improving regulatory environment and fostering local expertise in modern energy systems. We advocate for a comprehensive reevaluation of energy policies and investment strategies across Africa, emphasizing the importance of balancing the development of new infrastructure with the critical need to upgrade and enhance existing inefficient energy systems. Neglecting the improvement of current systems risks undermining the effectiveness of Africa’s energy transition. Furthermore, we highlight the necessity of implementing tailored solutions that address the distinctive energy challenges faced by each country on the continent. The context of Africa’s energy transition The term ‘‘energy transition’’ has, in many instances, been used to describe the shift of the energy industry from reliance on fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal, to low carbon energy sources like wind and solar power, as well as technologies such as lithium-ion batteries (Huhta and Romppanen, 2023; IRENA, 2023). In a different fashion, Smil (2017) has defined energy transition as “the change in the composition (structure) of primary energy supply, the gradual shift from a specific pattern of energy provision to a new state of an energy system.” However, these positions do not fully reflect the complexity of Africa’s energy transition. By 2050, the world population is expected to hit 9.7 billion (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2022).

Between 2022 and 2050, the population of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to nearly double, exceeding 2 billion people by the late 2040s (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2022). This forecast suggests that over a quarter of the global population will be African. Rapid urbanization is anticipated, with over half a billion people expected to join Africa’s urban population by 2040 (IEA, 2022a). These demographic shifts will notably increase energy demand and carbon emissions without any substantial changes in the energy system. Compounding this challenge is the urgent need to provide electricity access to about 600 million people in Africa by 2030 (IEA, 2023a). Approximately two-thirds of the global population living in extreme poverty reside in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2024). Given these realities and recognizing the critical interplay between energy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), addressing the obstacles and opportunities in providing energy services in Africa is increasingly vital. Additionally, climate change poses a significant threat to the continent. According to the African Development Bank, Africa is experiencing a loss of 5% to 15% of its per capita gross domestic product due to climate change and projections are much worse in the future, reaching 16–64% by 2030 under the high warming scenario (RCP8.5) (AfDB, 2022). The foregoing underscores the importance of transitioning to cleaner energy sources and adapting to climate impacts. Therefore, the energy transition in Africa transcends mere decarbonization; it is also about achieving broader social and economic development objectives, making it a multifaceted and inclusive endeavor. From an African perspective, the energy transition is about uplifting citizens out of poverty while simultaneously navigating an energy transition towards net-zero emissions (Odarno, 2023; Perlaviciute et al., 2021). In essence, Africa finds itself at a crossroads, balancing development aspirations and environmental sustainability (Bignoli et al., 2024; Mutiso, 2022). As the continent strives to pass through this crossroads, it faces a unique challenge known as “Zombie Energy Systems” (ZES).

While the term “zombie” typically evokes images of the undead, in the energy domain, here, it refers to outdated, inefficient, and often environmentally damaging energy systems that persist despite being obsolete. We coined the term to describe obsolete or stranded energy assets that continue to linger despite their detrimental impact on progress (Anthony et al., 2015; Macey, 2020; Wu et al., 2023). These assets are often characterized by their limited efficiency, and high maintenance costs. In Africa, ZES takes various forms in the supply and demand side of the energy system. In the supply side, it includes ageing coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, obsolete hydro-electric dams, diesel/gasoline generators and poorly maintained transmission and distribution systems among others. In the demand side, it encompasses inefficient domestic appliances, obsolete boilers, old vehicles and inefficient motors among others (NOPEC, 2023). The global energy transition is primarily focused on shifting from fossil fuels to low and zero carbon energy sources. ZES, often tied to outdated fossil fuel projects, does not align with these goals. As a result, international development efforts, which are increasingly driven by fuel replacement agendas, may overlook refurbishing and investing in new additional capacities of these facilities in favor of projects that contribute directly to decarbonization and the adoption of clean energy (Ramachandran, 2021; Todd Moss and Vijaya Ramachandran, 2021). Currently, international development agencies and investors often prioritize new, innovative projects that promise rapid results and visible impacts in Africa. This focus on “new and shiny” initiatives can overshadow the importance of addressing existing, failing energy infrastructure. The appeal of new renewable energy projects, in particular, solar PV mini grids and solar home systems, which align with global climate goals, often diverts attention from the more complex, less glamorous task of rehabilitating ZES. Restoring or repurposing ZES is often complex and expensive. It requires a detailed assessment of the existing facilities, extensive repairs or upgrades, and often, overcoming bureaucratic and political hurdles. In contrast, developing new projects can be more straightforward and easier to fund, making them more attractive to international donors and investors. Governments are sometimes reluctant to address these problems due to the potential for political fallout or the perceived high cost of action.