SCN Global Flow Monitor — Supply Chain Network Dynamics

Disruption Scenario Shock Target Scenario Preset Capacity Retained 30% Demand Elasticity ε 0.10 Supply Elasticity η 0.10 Horizon 26 wks Shock target   Collapse >60% Degraded 10–60%   Insulated Overland / pipeline SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491

Market Price p(t) Downstream Flow Losses Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining) Model & calibration: Supply Chain Networks — fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass infrastructure (e.g., East–West & Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically. arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491