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DashboardModelGitHubOil is part of everyday life, even when you don't think about it. It's refined into fuels that power cars, move goods, and help farmers grow our food. It's also used to make things like the clothes we wear.Since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in February 2026, the world has been using more oil than it produces. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are effectively closed to oil shipping, cutting off roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Russian refinery strikes and export bans are making the situation worse. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982.The Depletion Ledger tracks oil supplies, fuel prices, and how the shortage affects people and businesses. You can use the charts below to see what's changed and explore three ways the crisis could unfold. The model estimates how long stored oil could last in each case, and keeps a record of its predictions so you can see how they hold up.Last updated Sep 15, 2026PricesSupplyRefiningEffects on the economyWatch listRed SeaPersian GulfArabian SeaIranSaudi ArabiaYemenOmanHormuzBab el-MandebHormuz: 4 vessels on Sep 14 (preliminary tracking) · 14 over Sep 12–13 (7/day; The National) · 7 on Sep 10, none carrying crude oil (Kpler) · 102 for the week ending Sep 3 (Lloyd's List) · more than 130/day before the crisis.Bab el-Mandeb: the Houthis held Mokha, Perim, and the Hanish islands as of Sep 14. On Sep 15, they claimed 85 vessels had passed through the strait in 72 hours.Brent$105.68Sep 14 close · +40% vs pre-crisis ~$76US diesel (AAA)$6.27Sep 15 · new all-time record ($6.2694) — sixth straight · +68% vs pre-war $3.72US gasoline (AAA)$4.33Sep 15 · +18¢ in a week (AAA) · +54% vs Jan $2.81SPR285.4MSep 4 · down 1.2M in a week · down 130.1M from pre-war 415.4M · lowest since Dec 1982US diesel & heating oil106.3MSep 4 · up 2.1M in a week · 13% below 5-year average · East Coast stocks 28% below last yearPricesThese charts show how oil, gasoline, diesel, and natural gas prices have changed. Brent is a widely used benchmark for the price of crude oil. The gasoline and diesel charts use US national averages; the natural gas charts cover Europe and Asia. Every plotted value comes from a source. Missing readings are left out.US gasoline prices are up 54%EIA weekly, nationalThe national average has risen from $2.81 in January to $4.33, an increase of 54%. Prices peaked at $4.50 in May. Every month since March has averaged above the levels seen before the crisis.US diesel prices are up 68%AAA national, sourced pointsDiesel cost $3.72 in the last week before the war, on Feb 27. By Sep 15, it had reached $6.27, an increase of 68% and its sixth consecutive record. It passed the previous record of about $5.85, set in June 2022, on Sep 4. This chart shows selected readings. You can see the daily Sep 3–15 readings in the price spread chart below. Diesel prices have risen faster than gasoline prices as supplies of refined fuel have tightened.Natural gas prices in Europe are up about 153%TTF, $/MMBtu · filled: EIA weekly futures avgs (Jan–Apr) · hollow: individual contract quotes (May–Sep) · different instruments — a trend, not one seriesTTF is the benchmark used to track natural gas prices in Europe.
It traded above $28 on Sep 10, eased to $27.00 on Sep 11, and stood at about $27.80 on Sep 14 — the highest levels since December 2022. That's roughly 153% above the price before the strait closed. The Sep 14 value is converted from €81.98 per megawatt-hour to the dollar units used in this chart.
Prices have risen as unplanned maintenance at Norway's Asgard and Troll fields and tanker attacks put pressure on supplies.By January 20, European gas storage had fallen to 48%, compared with a five-year average of 63%. Running that low left Europe buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) for immediate delivery during the season the strait closed.Natural gas prices in Asia are up about 167%JKM, $/MMBtu · filled: EIA weekly futures avgs (Jan–Apr) · hollow: assessed spot (May–Sep) · different instruments — a trend, not one seriesJKM tracks the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered to Asia.
It reached the high-$28s on Sep 10 — its highest level in roughly two and a half years — and held around $28.50 on Sep 11, about 167% above the price before the closure (JOGMEC). Damaged production units at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex — about 17% of the country's LNG export capacity — are expected to be offline for 3–5 years, forcing Asian buyers to look elsewhere for supplies.
With little gas in storage, the region is particularly sensitive to changes in supply and weather.Brent and WTI prices are up about 40% and 52%Brent: sourced points (EIA monthly avgs: Mar $103.0 · Apr $117.29 · Jul $83.76) · WTI: weekly (FRED)Brent rose from $76 before the closure to an intraday peak of $126 in March, then fell to $95 by mid-April and $74 on Jun 30 as hopes for a ceasefire grew. It passed $100 again on Sep 9 as tanker attacks escalated, rose $6.82 to $108.03 on Sep 10, and settled at $104.61 on Sep 11.Brent closed at $105.68 on Sep 14 after reaching $106.73 earlier in the day. Prices rose after talks between Gulf foreign ministers and Iran were postponed. Reuters also reported that stocks at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port, could support another five to seven days of exports if the East–West pipeline remains closed.The gray line shows West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a US crude oil benchmark. Most WTI readings come from FRED's weekly spot series; the Sep 10, 11, and 14 readings are futures closes. WTI is also the crude price used in the fuel price spread chart beside this one. Hollow markers indicate a source's rounded estimate.The diesel price spread is up about 80%Retail price less WTI, $/bbl · weekly (EIA/AAA − FRED).This chart subtracts the price of crude oil from the retail price of fuel, with both expressed in dollars per barrel. The difference covers refining, transportation, and retailing. It helps explain why prices at the pump can keep rising even when crude gets cheaper. Diesel's spread grew from about $89 in January to $161.9 on Sep 15. It briefly narrowed to $148 on Sep 10, when crude prices rose faster than pump prices. Gasoline's spread has also widened, from about $59 to $78–84. This uses retail prices from EIA and AAA, minus WTI from FRED, with futures closes for Sep 10, 11, and 14.
The EIA's official crack spread uses wholesale fuel prices, so the values differ. Eight fuel readings have no same-day WTI value; those use the nearest trading day's price, within 1–2 days.
No missing prices are estimated.SupplyWhen the world uses more oil than it produces, the difference comes out of storage. These charts show how much oil has been withdrawn, how much is left, and how long the US emergency reserve could last under each of the model's three scenarios.The world is using more oil than it producesBefore the war, the world produced about 4 million more barrels of oil per day than it used. Since the war began, it has had to draw on stored oil every month. The IEA's latest report estimates a full-year supply loss of 5.7 million barrels per day, about 6% of the world's oil, and expects Middle East oil flows to remain below normal until 2027. Global production fell to 100.1 million barrels per day in August, with more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production still shut down. Saudi production alone fell by 2.3 million barrels per day that month, to 5.97 million.World oil balance, million b/d — production minus consumption, EIA STEO Table 3a, reported months (Jan–Aug actuals; the EIA's forecast tail is not shown) · the physical loss peaked at 11.2M b/d of Gulf shut-in in May — demand destruction and non-Gulf supply absorbed most of it · the IEA's observed-inventories count: 507 mb drawn since February — 2.8 mb/d on average, 95 mb of it in August alone.How much stored oil has been usedWithdrawals and changes in demand, using figures available as of Sep 11.Global commercial stocks−400M bblyear-to-date · EIA est.