China’s First Frontier AI Export Controls: MOFCOM Announcement No. 48

Key Takeaways On October 16, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) issued Announcement No.

48 of 2026.

The announcement proposes adding 40 technologies to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export, 23 of them in artificial intelligence, and it imposes an interim pre-export registration requirement that is already in effect [1][2]. China’s catalogue has touched AI before: the 2020 revision added personalized recommendation and AI interaction interface technology [6]. Unlike those 2020 additions, the draft reaches frontier model weights, agent architectures, and AI-enabled offensive cyber capability, with explicit technical thresholds for each [1]. The announcement contains two instruments with different legal status. The catalogue additions are a draft open for comment until November 15, 2026, while the registration requirement applies now, including to exports that have started but are not yet complete [1][2]. Within the draft, model weights are restricted at frontier scale. Weights, key checkpoints, source code, architecture, and training and inference optimization know-how are restricted if a model meets any one of three tests: at least 10^26 FLOPs of training compute, at least 2 trillion parameters, or a global top-10 position on public evaluation rankings, global call volume, or comparable measures at the time of export [1][3]. Agents are controlled independently of the model. Planning, multi-agent coordination, tool use, and game-theoretic decision technologies are restricted above set benchmarks, and high-performance agents built for critical infrastructure, defense, or core government use are prohibited outright [1]. The line between service access and custody determines most enterprise exposure. MOFCOM says API, app, web, SaaS, and lightweight on-device use do not count as exporting a large model. Deploying a restricted model locally outside China does count, though automatic licensing may apply on a Chinese company’s own overseas cloud [2]. Multinationals also face exposure through licensing deals and changes of ownership or control, not only through product exports, and analysts read the registration form as potentially capturing intra-group code sharing as well [2][3][4]. Any transfer of ownership, licensing for overseas use, or shift of control to a foreign entity can trigger registration [2][4]. Background China regulates outbound technology transfer under two overlapping regimes. The first is the technology-trade regime under the Foreign Trade Law and the Regulations on Technology Import and Export Administration, which governs the catalogue being revised here. The second is the dual-use export-control regime under the 2020 Export Control Law [5]. MOFCOM’s spokesperson described the revision as routine and grounded in Article 20 of the Foreign Trade Law. The spokesperson stressed that it “does not target any specific country, region, or entity” and that the aim is to prevent uncontrolled diffusion while protecting legitimate cooperation [2]. The catalogue has been revised several times since 2001. The August 2020 revision, which added recommendation-algorithm technology, coincided with the proposed sale of TikTok to a U.S. buyer and was reported as likely to complicate that deal [3][6].

Across all three sectors, Announcement No. 48 proposes 14 prohibited and 26 restricted items: 23 in AI, 5 in biomedicine, and 12 in photovoltaics [2].

In China’s technology-trade framework, prohibited technologies may not be exported at all, while restricted technologies require a license from commerce and science authorities. ChinaTalk notes that licensing is administered by provincial authorities, although central authorities have intervened in prominent cases [3]. The official annex groups the AI items into large models, agents, compute clusters, chip design, and information-processing technologies. It also excludes from management any technology that has already entered the public domain through open-source release or academic publication [1]. The interim registration requirement is the part that applies today. From the announcement date until the revised catalogue takes effect, exporters must register through MOFCOM’s unified business platform before exporting any listed technology. Registration covers four triggers: transfer of technology ownership abroad, licensing of domestic technology for overseas use, a change in ownership or control that makes a foreign entity the owner or controller, and other cases MOFCOM designates [2][4]. Exporters must decide for themselves whether a technology falls within scope. The registration form asks for recipient details, destination, technology description, end use, and estimated value [2][4]. The timing also matters for enterprises that already track U.S.

controls. CSA’s prior research documented the first U.S. use of export-control authority to suspend a broadly deployed commercial frontier model [9]. Announcement No.

48 means frontier AI supply chains now face formal outbound controls from both of the largest AI-producing jurisdictions. ChinaTalk observes that the 10^26 FLOP threshold mirrors the figure used in the 2023 U.S.

executive order and the since-rescinded 2025 U.S.

AI Diffusion rule.

The authors also estimate that no released Chinese model currently exceeds it [3].